Global Markets Newsletter – September 2021

September was a negative month mainly due to concerns regarding the rise of energy prices. Coal, oil and natural gas were the reasons for political headaches ahead of the coming winter.

In the US, the unexpected agreement of coalition with the United Kingdom and Australia against China with France fully annoyed, coupled with concerns of the Evergrande bankruptcy, brought volatility and negative trends in the market. US economic releases were mixed with exports slightly higher by $2bln and imports lower by 400k. Natural gas storage was lower by 9bln, non-farm payrolls were also much lower at 243k (from 1.05mln), unemployment still low at 5.2% (from 5.4%) and inflation at 4.0 from 4.3 (yoy).

In Europe, markets acted accordingly with a lot of intraday corrections. ECB stated indirectly that inflation is expected and growth is seen in the near future. Unemployment in Eurozone lowered from 7.8% to 7.6%, retail sales diminished to 3.1% (from 5.4%) and the GDP for the 2nd quarter was announced at 14.3% (yoy). Industrial production was better in July by 1.5% and core inflation re-mained stable at 1.6%. Consumer confidence re-mains one of the key factors for not moving for-ward as consumers are fearful for the future (in-dex at -4 from -5.3).

In Greece, international Fair of Thessaloniki was the most interesting part, with prime minister Mitsotakis declaring supportive measures for low-er income classes and sustainable growth in infra-structure, energy and technology sector. The stock exchange market lost 900 units due to interna-tional developments.

The EUR/USD moved towards 1.15 and it is ex-pected to remain in this trend short term mainly due to ECB’s policy to shrink its balance sheet that will reduce euro circulation.

Our preference remains the american equities ver-sus european stocks where we hold no position. US equities hold 60% of the total portfolio which the technological sector holding 60%.

S&P-500 (6-month chart)
Dax-30 (6-month chart)
EUR/USD  (6-month chart)

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