Global Markets Newsletter – October 2020

October was a difficult month due to the growing Co-rona effects with a heavy death toll and different measures taken by almost every country. In the US, presidential elections are in the epicenter of the news where economy may have more turbulence as increases in corporate tax may be expected which coupled by the corona-effects may lead faster to an upscaling recession. The FED remains the lender of last resort for banks and companies.

US non-farm payrolls were much lower to 661k from 1.5mln which normally would lead to higher unem-ployment. However, unemployment was kept at 7.9% mainly due to measures. PMI Manufacturing closed at 53.3 marginally dropped by 0.01 which shows at least a steady growth. Real estate industry has continued its momentum after August correc-tion with new home sales up by 1.9% and building permits up by 5.2%.

In Europe, many countries have decided to proceed to mini-lockdowns due to increased spread of the vi-rus. The effects in the relevant economies are vast mainly for sectors as food and beverage, tourism and transportation. ECB has already announced eco-nomic packages for its country members. In euro-zone economics, inflation remains stable at a nega-tive pace (-0.3%) and unemployment likewise at 8.1% (also stable). The rest of the indices reflect the last good moments of last summer. Retail sales were up 4.4% and industrial production also increased by 0.7% but on the negative signs consumer confidence was at low levels (-15.5) and eurozone business cli-mate also negative at -0.74.

In Greece, Turkish challenges continue but lock-downs have greater effects in the psychology and the society. Stock exchange traded at levels below 600 units showing recession and bonds were slightly higher in terms of yields with the 10-year govern-ment bond benchmark yield nearly at 1%.

The EUR/USD made its correction giving field to move in favour of the dollar as elections arrived at a point where uncertainty ended and hence volatility caused from elections diminishes.

Our preference remains the american equities ver-sus european stocks where we hold no position. US equities hold 60% of the total portfolio which the technological sector holding 60%. Cash remains cru-cial as corrections are buying opportunities often.

S&P-500 (year-to-date)
Dax-30 (year-to-date)
EUR/USD  (year-to-date)

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