June 2021 was the end of almost all lockdowns. Worldwide, vaccinations against Covid-19 were at their pick and this helped markets continue their upward trend coupled by increased liquidity, generated by various stimulus programs by the majority of central banks.
In the US, most economic releases were positive like unemployment which declined to 5.8% from 6.1% and inflation for May declined by 0.2% to 0.6%. Exports were increased to $205bln (from $202.6bln) whereas imports were declined to $274bln from 278bln. Retail sales also declined by 1.3% while industrial production was up from 0.8% to 1% (marginally lower). The American Real Estate market continues to show significant signs of recovery with new home sales increased by 3.6% (from a decline by 12.1%) and in numbers another 1.57mln were built in May comparing to a 1.52mln previously.
In the eurozone, the first half was recessional which will be reflected in numbers in September. However,
growth in GDP for the first quarter was announced reduced by 1.3%, industrial production was better by 0.8%, inflation lowered further from 0.6% to 0.3% and retail sales declined by 3.1% from a previous increase of 3.3%. Business climate was slightly better rated at 1.71 (previous at 1.49) but consumer confidence stayed unchanged at -3.3 proving inflation figures.
In Greece, stock market was rather insignificant and positive signs of credit stability news come from the bond market which has remained rigid with the 10- year government bond yield at 0.80% similar to the Italian (0.78%).
The EUR/USD moved towards 1.18 as a correction move which is not expected to last due to the supply of the dollar. It is worth mentioning that central bank are dedicated to take measures to protect their currencies against cryptocurrencies.
Our preference remains the american equities versus european stocks where we hold no position. US equities hold 60% of the total portfolio which the technological sector holding 60%. Cash remains crucial as corrections are buying opportunities often.
S&P-500 (6 months)
Dax-30 (6 months)
EUR/USD (6 months)
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